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About 30 per cent of Simplex Infrastructure's Rs 10,200 crore total order book (3.6 times FY08 revenue) comprises orders from West Asian countries. Also, within the total order book, about 50 per cent is from the private sector, including 20 per cent from industrial sectors. These are some concerns being cited by analysts with the stock is down 72 per cent in the last one year. However, the 84-year old engineering and construction company has superior execution capabilities, high operating margins and a less leveraged balance sheet (debt-equity ratio of about one currently), which makes it a good investment case.
Moreover, these concerns are already factored into the share price and valuations-the stock is currently trading at four times its estimated earnings and 0.5 times estimated book value for FY10. These valuations are low, as historically (during FY97-FY08) the stock has traded at an average price-to-book value of 1.3 times (and high of 7.5 times).
Importantly, fundamentally, things are now progressing on a positive note. Led by improvement in working capital, the company has repaid part of its debt recently which should lead to better profitability. Also, the fall in commodity prices would add to the operating margins, which is seen at about 10 per cent in FY10 compared to 9.7 per cent in FY09 and 9.5 per cent in FY08.
Although, there could be some slowdown in orders in the short-term (about six months), the company is confident of maintaining revenue growth of about 25 per cent over the next two years on the back of a strong order book. Additionally, the company's diverse presence across sectors like power, marine, industrial, roads, railways, bridges, urban infrastructure and housing provides comfort. Its recent foray into mining, onshore drilling and power T&D segments could prove to be future growth drivers and provides stability in the event of any slowdown in a particular segment or geography.
Sintex Industries
Despite the economic slump, Sintex Industries has been able to maintain its growth. The company's Q3FY09 sales were up by 30 per cent followed by 22 per cent growth in net profit. The company has been growing consistently in the past led by investments in fast growing businesses and partly due to acquisitions. Sintex manufactures plastic products such as custom mouldings and, prefabricated and monolithic structures, which are widely used in different industries, household and construction of temporary and permanent housing. The company has also extended its product portfolio covering sectors like aerospace, wind power, defence and consumer durables by way of acquiring new technologies and companies in the overseas markets (five companies in last 15-18 months).
While margins contracted to 13.2 per cent (down 340 basis point y-o-y) on account of high raw material prices and inventory losses (Rs 25-30 crore) in Q3FY09, they should improve in the coming quarters due to the 30-40 per cent correction in petrochemical prices (main raw material) and absence of inventory losses.
Overall, in the near term, there could be some concerns regarding its international operations given the slowdown in global markets (especially automotive plastic segment). However, the company is still expected to maintain a healthy revenue growth of about 25 per cent over the next two years. Notably, valuations are attractive as the stock is trading at 0.55 times its estimated book value and 3.9 times its estimated earnings for FY10.
Tanla Solutions
For this mobile value added service (MVAS) player, which gets over three quarters of its revenues from UK and Ireland, the recession in these markets have dampened the business outlook in the near term.
The company offers telecom infrastructure solutions through its four segments---products, network aggregation (SMS, MMS), professional services (infrastructure management) and mobile payments (smart phones) in about 28 markets around the world. Though the UK market is growing at just 10 per cent, VAS contributes to nearly a fifth of total mobile usage. With a shift to higher usage of 3G and mobile internet on the rise, Tanla with a 5 per cent market share in the UK market should benefit. For Q3FY09, except for the mobile payments segments, all others reported a decline of over 20 per cent q-o-q (sequential) due to a combination of slowing growth, regulatory changes in UK and weakening of the British pound.
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