According to Shankar Sharma of First Global  the trend in stock market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with.

He thinks that India is going to benefit when the oil prices correct and the correction will be sharp. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks.

He feels that the stock markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.

In infrastructure stocks he thinks valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further high returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.

Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead.

Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market.

It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty becauseinflation has cooled off. That rally will propel stock markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own."