9th April, 2009
According to proponenets of the Elliott Wave Theory the Sensex is now in the third wave of the five described in Elliott’s wave theory and it would now see a multi-month rally, though share prices may come down for short periods, says a technical research report by US-based Elliott Wave International.
Though in 2008, the Sensex saw one of its steepest falls after more than a five-year rally, the report said that the correction envisaged before the third wave was over. The rally would continue for 15 years, the report further explained.
The report termed India, Taiwan and New Zealand as potential “baby bulls” and said the stock markets in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia would be under the “bear” grip.
“The potential baby bulls completed only three waves down from their respective highs, which makes them strong candidates to rally back to at least near their all-time highs — if not beyond," the report stated.
Sensex had touched all-time high of 21,206.77 points on January 10, 2008.
Mark Galasiewski, Asian-Pacific Fin Forecast at Elliott Wave International, sees Sensex at 100,000 within 15 years based on technicals and current patterns. He is of the view that October 2008 lows have already been breached by most markets but India did not, which is very significant. "From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down."
According to Mark if the patterns they are observing are correct(which are based on technicals), the implication is Sensex 100,000 within 15 years. He said said that they were very bullish on India.
Their forecast for India is based on the particular what they are calling the Indian Ocean Group, these are the markets from Pakistan, down to Indonesia, that are connected to the Indian ocean. According to MArk this is very distinct from the rest of East Asia for example and very distinct from Europe and the US. Their services in the Eliott Wave International are forecasting larger bear markets for the next few to several years in the US, Europe, Japan and even china. India and the subcontinent in particular is special.
Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International was founded by Robert Prechter, who advised investors to short U.S. stocks in July 2007, three months before the bear market began. On Feb. 23, he said they should end that bet after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled to a 12-year low.
His 1995 book, “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market,” was published five years before the Internet bubble burst, driving a 49 percent retreat in the S&P 500 through October 2002. Still, investors who followed his advice missed out on the index more than doubling. Previously, he gained fame for cautioning investors that stocks would slump two weeks before the 1987 stock market crash.
The ratios used in Fibonacci analysis are based on the sequence identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century and used to predict support and resistance levels for prices.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index has led gains in Asia this year, rising 34 percent. The measure is currently on the fifth wave of an uptrend, Elliott Wave International suggested, pointing to the lower trading volumes in the March rebound compared with that of February.
The market researcher is more positive on the outlook for India, reiterating a call last month that the stock market has embarked on its second rally of a five-wave cycle even as U.S. shares are stuck in a “long-term bear market.”
Benchmark indexes tracking India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Indonesia have |
