| nt size="2">Q: You have not been for a while?
A: Yes, because they are a mature industry, all institutions own them. I think growth is going to be limited there. There are uncertainties in the principal markets. Although I have true respect and true regard for the Infosys management, I think meeting their guidance is going to be a challenge.
Q: Do you think there is a risk out there?
A: I think there is a challenge, because conditions in the US are going to get worse by the day. They are saying they expect the second quarter in the US to be better .
Q: Which is when you think the problems will start dropping in?
A: I think there will be three stages of the problem in America. First is the realisation of the subprime problem. Second, the economy will slowdown as a result. I think defaults would creep into prime housing, into credit cards and auto loans and maybe commercial real estate. I think that will be the second stage. The third stage is going to be a depression.
Q: Have you ever bought an FMCG stock in your life?
A: Yes, I have.
Q: Not Tata Tea?
A: No, not Tata Tea. I have another FMCG stock in which I own more than 5%.
Q: So, a largecap FMCG stock?
A: I won’t say largecap but fairly good company called Agro Tech Foods.
Q: But none of the ones we know like Colgate, Dabur, Marico, and Lever. You have never bought them in your life?
A: I may have bought some stocks like and sold it. I bought some shares in Lever in 2004 and sold it in 2005. I have made good money there.
Q: Have you ever been a big pharmaceutical investor?
A: I have a large investment in Lupin and made good money in Matrix. I made some small investments in Ranbaxy.
Q: Do you subscribe to the theory that capital goods or power is a sector, which was such a big leader, is on the wane and will not lead to the next rally?
A: Wane is about P/Es. Pharma P/Es are set to go up. That’s one sector which will not dip if we get a prolonged correction. If you look at some of the P/E ratios of pharma companies, they are certainly attractive. Everybody has been so ebullient about capital goods and that’s why P/E’s are high. It will take time for earnings to catch up.
Q: What are your thoughts on oil and gas as a space? You just spoke about crude; do you think there is an oil and gas play in India from a stock market perspective?
A: Well I would Reliance is a big oil and gas play. There could be some interesting plays in the smallcaps and the midcaps.
Q: Exploration?
A: Yes, exploration.
Q: You were once a bull on Indian Oil Corporation. You lost your hope in them?
A: I will never buy them, I promise. Wherever government is involved I am going to be very careful.
Q: That’s surprising coming from you because you made a lot of money from PSU companies like BEML and Bharat Electronics?
A: But at what valuations? I started buying Bharat Electronics at Rs 32, BEML at Rs 30. Also what I realized and why I sold this is that for companies to really gain at these valuations, one has got have that plus-plus. The investor has to have faith that these companies are innovative, they are going to do something new. They are going to do something different. I don’t find that in the public sector. They are constrained. Indian Oil–I read Rs 450 crore is what we are losing on fuel everyday. But there are interesting opportunities in exploration. I have some investment in that sector.
Q: But they are s |